Taiwan: Flashpoint in the East

We provide a history of Taiwan, the Chinese Civil War, and the the state of the island today.  

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Taiwan: The Flashpoint of the East

January 2024

Ultimately, China may use force to push for unification with Taiwan, a scenario we all must work to prevent.

Michael K. Simpson, Representative from Idaho

Two seemingly disparate nations, Taiwan and Ukraine, have been linked together in recent years. There are some similarities between them. Like Ukraine, Taiwan is not communist and has an elected government. They are also former colonies of imperial dynasties.  

Yet there are also many differences. Taiwan is 13,826 square miles and has a population of 23 million. Ukraine has population is 44 million, but its landmass is 233,100 sq miles, nearly 18x larger than Taiwan's. Taiwan is subsequently the 17th most densely populated country in the world. Through its technological leadership, Taiwan is an economic powerhouse far exceeding the much larger Ukraine. Whereas Ukraine’s economy has a $200 billion GDP, Taiwan’s is almost four times as large, with $778 Billion. An example of this economic power is Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Whereas Ukraine has a border with Russia, Taiwan is an island in the western Pacific Ocean that lies roughly 100 miles off the coast of southeastern China.

As noted, the one thing that does bond Taiwan and Ukraine is that both were once part of a much larger empire and were severed from their overlords, Taiwan in 1895 and the Ukraine more recently in 1991. They are similar in that tyrannical forces now covet them, driven by a militaristic desire for lost glory.  Jim Geherty, writing for National Review in October of 2023, noted.  

“In the Taiwan Foreign Ministry, in the hallway outside the foreign minister’s office, there is a display showcasing the country’s support for, and perhaps deep emotional connection with, Ukraine. The Taiwanese know what it’s like to have a larger, more powerful, aggressive, nuclear-armed neighbor run by an authoritarian that looks at your country and believes it is destined to be under his control.”  

But this is not just about the desire to conquer neighbors as empires have done throughout history. Instead, that claim to historical ownership fuels the desires of the Chinese Communist regime and justifies conquest. 

For thousands of years, Taiwan existed as an independent entity with its native population. It was in the 1200s that Han Chinese began to trade with inhabitants on the island. In the 1700s, these same Han began to colonize, but they had competition. Named Formosa by Portuguese explorers, the south of the island was colonized by the Dutch in the 17th century while the Spanish, from their base in the Philippines, built a settlement in the north, though this only lasted until 1642. 

From 1624 to 1668, the Dutch East India Company operated on Taiwan with up to a quarter of the company’s profits emanating from this one colony. Then, an exiled Ming (1368 to 1644) general, also noted by several historians as the Pirate King, named Koxinga (Co-shing-a) forced out the Dutch and established a short-lived dynasty on the island until the arch-enemies of the Ming, the Qing, took over the island.  

To hear Chinese President Xi tell it, Taiwan has been part of China for time immemorial. Just this past New Year’s Day, he noted that China would “surely be reunified” with Taiwan, renewing Beijing's threats to take over the self-ruled island. The reality is a little different.  

The history of China goes back thousands of years. If the Egyptians or Sumerians beat them for the title of the first civilization, borne out of surplus foodstuffs and thus allowing for specialists, then the Chinese were just a little behind. Our challenge is that the Chinese were a little later in writing, so their first Xia dynasty may or may not be mythological. Assuming the Xia were real, they ruled between 2205 and 1766 BCE. We know the Shang Dynasty from 1,600 BCE to 1000 and the subsequent Chou, were historical, not mythological, rulers. 

Then, in the 220s BCE, Zhao Zheng of the Qin united most of China, creating a precedent for a unified state. Later known as Qin Shi Huang Di, or roughly the first emperor, he established the boundaries that would comprise much of the China we know today. Therefore, China, as a concept, is old. Yet it was in 1683 CE that The Qing, the last imperial dynasty of China, formally annexed Taiwan. In China’s 2,500-year history, Taiwan was a part of the mainland for less than 300 years, including the Japanese occupation (1895-1945). It takes a long time to be certain, but it is not similar to Hubei or Shangdong, which dates back to the Qin. Interestingly, in the late 1700s, not long after the Qing conquest of Taiwan, the Russian Romanovs conquered Ukraine.  

In 1895, the newly expansionist Japanese annexed Taiwan from a weakened Qing Empire.  The Japanese Empire held the island until the end of World War II.  The Japanese were horrific rulers in much of their early 20th-century empire, including in places such as Korea and Northern China. This is also the case with Taiwan, but their rule on the island also changed the complexity and allegiance of the island. John Krich, writing for Nikkei Asia, notes, 

That other Asian power, whose ongoing imprint still seems to affect Taiwan more than all the cross-strait bluster of Chinese President Xi Jinping and his cohort. That power, although nowadays mostly humbly refusing to be one, is, of course, Japan. Japan occupied and administered its nearest island neighbor from 1895 to 1945, at the height of its imperial era, making old Formosa a place that never came within the confines of modern China, as frequently noted by pro-independence forces in Taiwan.

Naturally, that period of colonization was hardly benign but, by all accounts, was far less brutal than what was seen in other Asian areas that came under Japanese colonial rule. The usual repression and forced labor led to widespread improvements as Japan tried to make its first colonial possession into a "model" for future conquests.

As a result, today's Taiwanese don't seem to bear historical grudges while wildly embracing Japanese food, studying the Japanese language, indulging in Japanese-style hot springs, and most often making Japan their first choice for overseas travel, a journey abroad that is comfortingly familiar. Even its political leaders make frequent statements reminding the citizenry of the many "good things" left behind by Japan.”

The odd state of two Chinas, both claiming suzerainty over the other, was borne out of the Chinese Civil War fought in the 1930s and 40s and ending in 1949 with the communists (the Peoples Republic of China), led by Mao Zedong, victorious. The Nationalists, under Chaing Kai Shek, who had ruled China for 30 years, fled to Taiwan and set up a government there (The Republic of China). Part of the communist victory emanated from the weakening of the nationalists through war with Japan during much of this period. In a piece from the Harry S Truman Library entitled “Who Lost China,” much of the blame must be laid on bad decisions by Chaing and by the the 1930s-40s war with the Japanese.

The 1931 Japanese invasion of Manchuria began a chain of events that led to the eventual communist overthrow of China in 1949. For years, the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai Shek had worked to suppress rebellions by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The government was effective in defeating communist forces. The resulting period of retreat, commonly referred to as the Long March, marked the rise of Mao Zedong as a leader of the Communist movement in China.

Where Nationalist forces continued to be weakened from engagements with the Japanese, communist forces grew in size and support from the more rural parts of unoccupied China. Guerilla attacks by the CCP against the Japanese gave the perception that they were a more effective option. By the end of the Chinese Civil War, the CCP enjoyed popularity in large parts of China. According to a 2016 piece in the Congressional Rights Organization:

Chiang’s Nationalist government was filled with incompetent and corrupt officials. The people especially hated the tax collectors, who were commonly called “blood-sucking devils.” Chiang himself held dictatorial powers, but his orders were often ignored. He had little success rallying Chinese nationalism to win an unpopular war against the Communists. Chiang’s decision to go to war against the Communists in 1946 came at the cost of postponing the economic reconstruction of China, which was wrecked during the war with Japan. This meant diverting tax revenues, investment, and other resources to the war effort rather than to the needs of the people. Heavy taxes, a huge government debt, inflation, unemployment, and food shortages caused many, especially in the cities, to lose faith in the Nationalist government.”

Unlike Chiang’s numerous independent armies, Mao’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was unified under a tightly controlled central command. Mao’s generals, dedicated to the Communist cause, were superior military leaders. They transformed small guerilla bands into a modern conventional army capable of moving quickly to exploit the much larger but uncoordinated Nationalist armies.

And here we come to a critical juncture.  After his defeat Chiang and his supporters fled the mainland and established a new government in Taiwan but claimed he was still China's president. Likewise, Mao declared that Taiwan was part of the People’s Republic of China, the direct source of Xi’s claims. This political conflict over Taiwan’s status remains unresolved to this day. A question arises about why Mao did not simply invade Taiwan during his rule which ended in the 1970s.  There could be many answers such as China’s involvement in the Korean War in 1951-53 or his horrific Great Leap Forward agricultural scheme that led to famine and the deaths of tens of millions.  But the short answer is he did not conquer the island and it remains independent-at leas at the time of this writing.  

But whereas the nation whose population is less than 2% of China’s, bears no threat to Xi, he is a clear and present danger to Taiwan. Here is an example of the threatening gestures perpetuated by Xi in just the past few months.  Amy Chang Chien and Chris Buckley reported in the New York Times. 

China sent a record number of military aircraft toward the self-governed island democracy of Taiwan, prompting the island’s defense ministry on Monday to warn against what it called “destructive” harassment. The previous daily record of Chinese military flights near Taiwan was 91 planes on April 10.  Taiwan said it tracked 103 People’s Liberation Army aircraft entering its air defense identification zone 24 hours before Monday morning. None entered Taiwan’s airspace. China has ramped up military flights around Taiwan every year since 2019. In particular, Beijing has done so during moments of tension around Taiwan’s high-level exchanges with the United States, the island’s most important political and security partner.

Adds Buckley and Chang Chien, “Chinese leaders have maintained for decades that they want to claim Taiwan back peacefully but will not exclude using force if they deem it necessary.”

And there is another factor that will compel Xi to act. According to Elaine Kurtenbach and Zen Soo of the AP, in a piece written in 2023:

Friday’s report followed an update Thursday from the World Bank that forecast that 5.2% annual growth this year will slow to 4.5% next year and to 4.3% in 2025. China’s economy has yoyoed in the past few years, with growth ranging from 2.2% in 2020 to 8.4% in 2021 and 3% last year. Real estate investment has fallen by 18% in the past two years, the World Bank report said. It said the value of new property sales fell 5% in January-October from a year earlier, while new property starts dropped more than 25%. The slowdown was worst in smaller cities that account for about 80% of the market in the country of 1.4 billion people.

And a looming demographic trend. The ChinaPower blog states:

When the government eased the one-child policy in 2013, officials predicted an additional 2 million births in 2014, but only 470,000 more people were born in 2014 than in 2013. Similarly, despite recent government encouragement to have three children, China’s birth rate continues to fall. Between 2010 and 2020, China’s average household size fell from 3.1 to 2.6 persons. China has long relied on its young, mobile workforce to form the backbone of its economy, but current demographic trends could hamper China’s economic growth and create challenging social problems. The rapid aging of its society will compound China’s difficulties.

When a totalitarian government such as Xi faces internal, almost intractable problems, a typical policy is distraction. And what better diversion than the expression of nationalistic military might? And what better place to start than an island already considered part of the mainland? One that had been part of China for 300 years already. 

Though the Chinese people do not favor this approach in some surveys, there is always an initial flush of patriotism to these actions. The British saw it with the Falkland Islands campaign in the 1980s; the US saw it with the 1st Gulf War in 1990 and again in 2003 with the quick conquest of Iraq. The problem was that the governance challenge started, and there was fallout from these campaigns. Few Americans look back on George W Bush’s premature “mission accomplished” banner with a sense of patriotism.

And there is the trade factor, a key aspect of China’s economy.  China’s top trading partners include the United States, Japan, and even Taiwan itself, all of which would be adversely affected given a conquest. With their current economic and demographic challenges, does China also want to jeopardize their trade? 

But this is the happy circumstance of dictatorship. Xi’s fellow tyrannical traveler, Vladimir Putin, guessed wrong on the Ukraine two years ago. The 30-day campaign ended like a 21st-century Schieffelin plan wherein victory was not achieved in a month but settled into a bloody stalemate. Putin’s economy is now a mess. He has lost thousands of military vehicles and, of course, caused the death of some half a million people, including Russia’s best troops. Yet Putin is still very much in power in Russia. Let’s say Xi is wrong about a quick conquest and loses a chunk of his Navy or some unforeseen event, such as that time when another mainland Asian force attempted to conquer an island. In the 13th century, Kublai Khan’s unstoppable armada was not beaten by the Japanese but by bad weather, the Kamikaze. For Xi, it will probably not matter. The example of Mao, near Xi’s heart, serves as an example that no matter how many horrific things you do, as long as you retain control of the military, you too can survive. 

And of the Taiwanese? In a piece by Therese Shaheen, dated January 9, 2024, the author writes, 

This Saturday, Taiwan will elect its next president. Until then, the Chinese government propaganda organs of political warfare were in overdrive to impact the outcome. No one is spared. This is personal. Cyberattacks are commonplace, but it goes much further. For as long as anyone can remember, the PRC has used social media, infiltration of institutions, bribery, corruption, spycraft, and every conceivable type of manipulation to cast doubt in Taiwan about whom anyone can trust.

Despite this, the people of Taiwan have managed to have a profound impact on history. Their enduring faith in themselves, their fellow citizens, and their institutions is one of the great examples of democratic heroism in the past century. We are watching a David vs. Goliath story, a Battle of Thermopylae epic of the 300 defending against seemingly hopeless odds. The oft-overlooked people of the island nation are inspired by their determined stand for their ideals against the implacable regime across the Taiwan Strait.

I have written many pieces regarding the need for the US to maintain a robust global presence based on a simple premise: we fight them there or fight them here. After the bombing of our embassies in the 1990s or the Cole assault in 2000, we did not directly confront the reality that Islamic terrorism was a direct threat. Then there was 9/11. Though I would doubt that Xi and China itself would directly attack us, this regime would do everything possible to destabilize our Republic. The result would be similar. In the Ukraine, we have a unique opportunity to permanently thwart two of our avowed enemies, Russia and its new weapons provider, Iran. And we wouldn’t need to commit a single American soldier to do so. The Ukrainians will do the fighting; they just want us to supply them.  

Henry Kissinger, an important and influential man, died last year, and hopefully, with him, we will discard some of the less honorable and, in the end, less valuable, of his belief systems. Kissinger stated, “The U.S. side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States government does not challenge that position.” Kissinger got a lot of things right, and I hope to do a podcast on his achievements in the future, but he was wrong about Taiwan.  

Like Ukraine, Taiwan wants to be independent. Similar to Ukraine, there are local allies at hand, including the Japanese, who will support them. We must give the Taiwanese the necessary equipment and supplies to ensure their survival should an invasion occur. And we can do a few other things. 

It was a mistake for Trump's political purposes to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trading (TPP) agreement in 2016. We should resurrect that to isolate China and improve our trade deficits. We should also work with other global entities to provide an alternative to the manufacturing now done in China. It is a horrible strategic weakness. And we need to rebuild our Navy. And I am not just talking about massive aircraft carriers because politicians like to name big things. I carry great fears of their effectiveness in the 21st century. I am thinking of smart subs and destroyers.  

Of course, this will require time, energy, and pressure, something neither of our current leading candidates possesses. Xi will decry many of these steps, and the escalation concerns will be raised. One does not need to live in the late 1930s to know that appeasers are always with us.  But I doubt our actions will compel Xi to invade Taiwan. However, I feel strongly that our decisive actions might veer him off of that course. As the great Reagan once stated, peace comes from a position of strength.