Top Five Historical Events of 2024

What are the most influential figures, trends or events that future historians will look back on from this past year?  We assemble a list as the most important of 2024.  

Transcript

Top Five Historical Moments from 2024

January 2025

Historians, like sports fanatics, movie buffs, and lovers of literature, enjoy debates.  Who was the most influential figure in history? How about the greatest Roman Emperor?  Was Ming China the apex of history until that moment? What was the role of women in 1910s progressivism?  And something pertinent today: is capitalism the source of our prosperity?

By the way, Mohammad, Augustus, yes to the Ming and significant on the issue of women during the progressive era and a big yes to capitalism.  

Like those other aficionados’ historians have the advantage of 20/20 hindsight; when a basketball fan debates the best of all time, either Michael or Lebron (a true devotee of basketball needs only first names) will cite facts on the record from the past.  The sports guys on Fox Radio or ESPN (and now Amazon, eeek) might not think of themselves in terms of historians, but that is essentially what they become during these arguments.

What is much more difficult is to look at our present-day trends, figures, and events and discern what or who will be truly influential in the future.  If a teacher or professor in 2074 were providing a course on the 2020s, what would they cite from this year that would be impactful? Going back to our sports debate, Michael Jordan was not even the 1st player taken in his draft class of 1984, forty years ago.  Hakeem Olajuwon (a big center) and Sam Bowie were taken before MJ.  Hakeem had a hall-of-fame career, though not nearly at Jordan’s level.  Bowie was a bust, suffering a series of foot injuries, making him the single largest mistake in NBA history.  But we did not know that at the time.  Because Jordan played on a ball control team at his college in North Carolina, with a coach who did believe in hot dogging, his full panoply of skills was not entirely evident. If the NBA GMs knew what we do, he would have been picked first in that or any draft, not including Lebron James, and even then, it was a toss-up.  Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  

Given those parameters, I will wade into the treacherous waters of prognostication, pick the future Jordans, and forgo the possible Sam Bowies.   My criteria, consistent with my other podcasts, is influence.  What figures, trends, or events will affect most people and most people most deeply over time?  And said event needed to have occurred in 2024, of course.  For example, a significant outcome in this past year was the final transformation of the Republican Party from that of the three stool model of Reagan to one of a populist party more akin to Pat Buchanan’s outlook.  However, that took place over the years, beginning in 2015 with the ascent of Donald Trump and reinforced by the lessening of power and influence of the likes of Paul Ryan, Liz Cheney, and Mitt Romney. The rise of a figure such as JD Vance, though cemented in 2024, really began with his election as Senator in 2022. 

First, honorable mentions

Putin went on the offensive in the Ukraine, but, typical of Russian long-term strategy, was a part of a war of attrition with a smaller nation. If this were 2022, the year of the invasion, this would make the top five. 

A major shocker came on August 5 when Sheikh Hasina hurriedly resigned as the prime minister of Bangladesh. After four terms of authoritarian, really tyrannical rule, she was forced to flee. I try to be worldly in my view of history, but though critical to the people of Bangladesh and India, it does not rank among the top five.  

South Korea’s martial law imposition is important to the region and maybe the world, but I cannot see the ripples yet; thus, it is still not in the top five.  

And onto the list:

1. The Biden Deterioration Scandal 

With this first entry, I am violating my own rule.  Biden’s deterioration was evident back in 2019.  On a debate stage with a bunch of other Democrats it was clear then that the Biden of the Obama years was not this guy.  We later learned the management of his senescence began nearly on inauguration day in 2021.  But it was 2024 when the exposure of the full scope of his infirmities became too difficult to ignore. Additionally, the confessions, even of members of the Biden Administration, began this year. 

I put this at number one because it is unprecedented in our Republic. For three years, a cabal of advisors, staff, and family members was essentially running the executive branch of the US government. Decisions ranging from Afghanistan withdrawal to the build-back better boondoggle bill to the selection of key executive posts like SEC Chair were more than likely not made by the person elected in 2020.  

Many, myself included, noted a parallel between Biden and Woodrow Wilson.  The latter experienced a stroke near the end of his second term so debilitating that his wife and secretary essentially ran the executive branch of government with massive implications relating to the post-World War I global structure.  But there is a difference here.  Wilson lived in a time prior to mass radio, TV, and the Internet.  Presidents were not as ubiquitous presences in our lives as they are today. If there was breaking news, organizations would not conceive of “going to the White House for comment.”  

All of that exists today.  The vast majority of the American people knew of his infirmities.  We could all see the shuffling walk, the fall from a bicycle, the trip and fall over a sandbag, the confusion over which exit to use, the failure to name members of the cabinet, including his defense secretary, or to even know that said secretary was in the hospital.  This cover-up includes slurred speech, inability to speak extemporaneously, four-day vacation weekends in Delaware, and light schedules with events only planned between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM.  We all saw it and knew.  Yet his staff managed all of this.  They told us he was fine. His press secretary, a fit 44-year-old, even had the temerity to state she could not keep up with him. 

Democratic leaders who met with him said the same thing. Media platforms, including ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, the New York Times, and the Washington Post, refused to report on what was obvious. They all encouraged his presidential campaign for a second term in the fear that any Democratic division might lead to a Trump victory.  

It did not help that they lacked confidence in a Harris campaign and were concerned about the timing of a mini-primary.  

For decades, we have seen a deterioration in Americans’ beliefs in institutions ranging from government to non profits to the media.  This scandal touched on all of them in a don’t see don’t tell monolithic approach to discussing Biden. The presidency, its staff, past Presidents such as Obama and Clinton, Democratic leaders of Congress, and a vast swathe of media all lied for political expediency.  

And all this was exposed in 2024. First, at the June 27 debate. Then, in the end-of-year articles from the Wall Street Journal and, more telling, the left-of-center New York Times, whose contributors consistently supported the Biden is fine narrative.  

The left discusses Trump’s assaults on institutions from the FBI to Congress. I can see both sides of this argument, but in the end, conservative outlets—from National Review to humble historian podcasters—question Trump. There was nothing from the left on this.  

Fifty years from now, Americans will shake their heads and wonder that a major part of American leadership perpetuated a bald-faced lie and that over 72% of Americans polled knew it was a falsehood.  

2.       Israel ascendant 

Since the inception of the state of Israel in 1948, seventy-six years ago, the nation has been in near-constant battles with its neighbors.  Some are full-out wars, such as in 1973. Other times, Israel has been fighting an insurgency, including three intifadas.  And between those conflicts, random missiles fired from Lebanon or terrorist acts in population centers. And after defeating an array of Arab foes, in 1979, with the fall of the Shah, Israel had an even more virulent foe than nationalistic Egypt or shaky Syria.  As a theocracy, Iran fights not for national or even ethnic interests but religious ones, holy war.  

Though each time Israel has emerged victorious, it seemed that in 2023, Iran had conceived of a new strategy to defeat the nation. Instead of taking on Israel in a conventional state-against-state war or in guerrilla tactics, Iran would line up 4-to 5 proxy organizations.  They would arm them and train them and, through constant strife, wear down Israel.  This semi-war ended on October 7, 2023, when one of these organizations, Hamas, invaded Israel from Gaza, murdering 1,200 innocents.  Then, the plan was that another group, Hezbollah, operating out of Lebanon in the North, would enter the conflict. A third group, the Houthi in Yemen, would deny general trade by closing the Red Sea.  Other militia groups from Syria would harass and sit like a spider in the center of the web, and Iran would support and finance all of this.  

But something went wrong.  First, Israel, fortunately ignoring the soft-headed pleas of “world opinion,” not only invaded but leveled Gaza in order to find and destroy all Hamas activity.  Then, right when Hezbollah, the most effective of the militias, was ready to invade, Israel set off the beepers.  In what has to be one of the greatest military pieces of ingenuity in all of history, Israel built beeper bombs, secretly sold them to Hezbollah, and, waiting years, set them off at precisely the right moment, killing or maiming thousands of Hezbollah leaders and fighters.  And no mass slaughter.  It does not get any more targeted.  

Accompanied by air raids, Israel took out nearly all the top 100 leaders, including Hasan Nasrallah  

They also sent effective bombing runs against the Houthis.

And finally, Iran itself.  After an Israeli raid, Iran sent over 200 missiles, becoming ineffectual.  In a counter-raid, Israel took out Iran’s detection and communication systems. An Israeli jet could fly over Tehran, and the first that the Ayatollahs would know is when the jet is in eyesight, and of course, by then, it will be too late.  

The result of all of this is that Iran-backed Hamas is nearly extinct.  Hezbollah is reeling, and without their support, the Iran-backed regime in Syria has been destroyed.  And Israel could pound Iran at any time, and there is not much left in terms of retaliation.  

I started this as Israel’s ascendant, but I could have equally called this Iran descendant.  The theocratic tyranny that has ruled Iran since 1979 has never been weaker.  If I were Donald Trump, I would push the IDF (with American support) to take out the Nuclear facilities as well.  

3.       Alternative media

From 1962 through 1981, Walter Cronkite hosted CBS News for 30 minutes each evening on weeknights.  He commanded an audience of nearly 30 million and was considered “the most trusted man in America.”  When Lyndon Johnson in 1968, facing the same conundrum as Joe Biden this year, whether to continue his campaign or step aside, realized he had a Conkrite problem.  When Conkrite declared the Vietnam War “mired in stalemate,” it coincided with public opinion at that time, but coming from the Conkrite, it had weight. This was the guy who ended his broadcasts with, “And that’s the way it is.”  Johnson concluded, “If I lost Cronkite, I’ve lost Middle America” and quit the campaign. 

It is difficult to imagine any media figure commanding even a scintilla of that influence to command the American people’s trust such that a president would reconsider a reelection campaign based on such a conclusion.  We know that such trust is not to be found in traditional media.

As noted in a previous podcast, Matt Ford, writing for the New Republic, suggested Americans are fed up and feel powerless, “As Americans have fewer and fewer lawful means to peacefully address social and economic issues or resolve disputes among themselves.” 

This is excrement, of course.  In the supposed golden age of journalism, a viewer had a limited means of accessing news content.  There are three big networks, with Cronkite being the most prominent.  One local newspaper, maybe two, and a bunch of fringe ones.  Three national newspapers: The New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.  In reality, Cronkite was a liberal.  So was his successor, Dan Rather.  A few conservatives were around, like David Brinkley, but not many.  Yet they subtly hid their biases because of the desire for a large audience, primarily to appease advertisers.  Cronkite could not describe Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan and keep his massive audience or job.  Part of this dynamic was that a large viewing audience was a means to an end, not the end.  The goal was to put as many eyeballs as possible in front of the advertisers.  After all, General Motors or Proctor and Gamble did not give a darn whether you were a Republican or a Democrat.  

But imagine you wanted to provide a voice. In the broadcast networks, you had no other option than tuning in—a stat on Neilson ratings report. You may have sent an editorial to the local paper, which might have gotten published. But if you were living in WI, you had no means, zero, to talk to a Californian.  

For good (and sometimes ill), the Internet has changed that, and in 2024, this ability to become one’s media came to fruition.  One example, perhaps the greatest, is that Joe Rogan, who once hosted a game show called Fear Factor, had more influence in national politics than Kristen Welker of NBC, David Muir of ABC, or Nora O’Donnell of CBS.  More pull than all of the columnists and opinion writers at the New York Times and Washington Post combined.  

This trend of information balkanization began decades ago, but the influence of alternative media changed our politics in 2024, as exemplified by Kamala Harris’s decision.

Harris did not go on Joe Rogan in what should be considered a blunder. Her opponent, Donald Trump, did.  First, let’s put the audience in perspective. A combined hour viewership of Sean Hannity, Rachel Maddow, and Anderson Cooper is half what Rogan gets for each podcast.  And a combination of the newscasts for ABC, CBS, and NBC barely edges out Rogan’s audience.  So, in what was perceived to be a close election, Harris decided not to go on Rogan’s show.  Maybe she thought, in a get-out-the-base election, his audience was too Trumpy.  Perhaps in a rare moment of self-reflection, Harris realized that a free-wheeling, hour-long, unscripted discussion would be her undoing as she does off-script.  Either way, in an election decided by slightly over 2 million votes, she did not go onto his podcast and gain access to his eleven million listeners.  And Trump did.  

She did, as did Trump, the traditional media, including an abbreviated 15 minutes with Bret Baier, probably the most ideologically neutral member of Fox News. Baier’s audience is about 3 million. In an acknowledgment of the Podcasting power, Harris did go on Call Me Daddy, which ranks fifth in listenership to Rogan’s number one spot.  

No presidential election comes down to one thing, as in the possible cases of 1860 or 1932. However, Harris’s semi-embracing of alternative media, as opposed to Trump’s all-in approach, was a factor.    

Just as FDR was a master of radio and JFK looked good on TV, politicians who master this new media environment will be prosperous. 2024 was the year when alternative media, such as social media and podcasts, took the media baton out of the hands of newspapers and broadcasters.   

4.       The 2024 Election 

I hesitated to include this one because we have now had 59 presidential elections and dozens of power exchanges.  A recent trend is to make every presidential election a defining moment for the nation.  The reality is that though the last Obama, the first Trump, and the sole Biden terms had a lot of stuff happen, they were not historically transformative.  And for all the boasting about mandates and landslides, 2024 was neither of those.  Trump’s margin of victory in the popular vote ranks 46th out of 59 elections.  He won all of the swing states but none of the blue ones.  And GOP senatorial candidates failed in competitive elections in AZ, NV, WI, and MI.  Election-wise, Trump did okay, which is whether this was a typical standalone election.  It was not.  

Trump joined Grover Cleveland as the only non-consecutive term president.  And whereas Cleveland departed his first term with dignity and respect and won the popular vote, Trump vehemently denied he lost, despite any factual evidence to the contrary, denied the election results, and fomented a riot at the capitol.  So Trump had a much larger hole to climb out of than Cleveland.  

Couple that with the survival (if Trump had moved his head two inches to the right, he would have been murdered) of not just one but two assassination attempts.  Squeaky Fromme should have never been historical except as a footnote to the Manson cult, but we know her today for her attempt on President Gerald Ford’s life.  So it goes with Trump.  

And there is a third factor that makes 2024 stand out.  Several other presidents have decided against running for a second term, though they all announced it before launching a reelection campaign. James K. Polk, James Buchanon, Rutherford B. Hayes, Theodore Roosevelt, and Calvin Coolidge all made it known in advance of the next election cycle that they would not seek reelection.  Some even shared their decision very early on or during their campaigns for a first term. 

No other president seeking reelection has dropped out so late as Joe Biden. After serving the better part of two terms (and being eligible for another), Harry Truman pulled out of the 1952 race in late March, failing to win over a majority of voters at the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary earlier that month. President Lyndon B. Johnson dropped out of the 1968 election in late March amid low approval ratings and the aforementioned issue with Cronkite.  Not only does the dropping output Biden in rare company, but doing so on July 21, 100 days before the election, and with less time, given the nature of mail-in ballots, is new ground. 

5.       The exposure of a vacuous Academy

Claudine Gay, president of Harvard, was forced out in 2024.  So was President Minouche Shafik of Columbia. Student protests across campuses found themselves in favor of a terrorist organization that had murdered and raped 1,200 unarmed men, women, children and babies.  The Academy had long been known as a festering swamp of anti-Americanism, left-wing politics, and intellectual groupthink, but that did not stop American parents of all political stripes from sending their children and hundreds of thousands of their dollars to these dens of indoctrination.  

However, due to various scandals, Americans have reconsidered the value of a college education for the first time in at least three generations.

According to a May 2024 Pew Research article, About half of Americans (49%) say it’s less important today than it was in the past for someone to have a four-year degree in order to get a well-paying job. About a third (32%) say having a degree is more important now, and 17% say its importance hasn’t changed. In the past decade, the percentage of Americans who expressed a lot of confidence in higher education fell from 57% to 36%, according to Gallup. 

Note how these world events are interrelated.  It was Hamas’ invasion of Israel that ripped off the cover of fetid anti-Semitism on the campus.  Which in turn sparked debates about the value of the degree overall.  If we see a decline in college attendance and, even better, reform of the universities, it will have begun in 2024.